I would look at it like university. It's a good early filter and it matters somewhat at mature stages. But there are terrible people from Harvard too, and there are great people who have never went to university.
for the most part, Lightspeed invests good bit later than the others you've mentioned -- they're cutting larger checks in more mature companies
probability of an outright zero is likely lower with the Lightspeed-backed company (but honestly not by that much)
wouldn't use this as the primary criterion for offer acceptance
So, given everything else is equal, I would chose the one with the non-serial founders.
But usually not everything will be equal, so:
1. evaluate the idea/product for its TAM and commercial/exit potential
2. what is the run rate of the company: raised funds / burn rate per month
3. serial founders or first-timers?
4. are you passionate about this space?
5. would you like working with these people?
6. are you happy with the compensation (i.e. equity/salary split)?
If it's a B2B or B2D startup, it might benefit from YC, as YC alumni startups might be early customers. The VCs may also ask their portfolio companies to evaluate your product, but IMO it's much more effective in YC case.