For serial entrepreneurs it's very easy to raise funds from VCs without any validation, also they're not as hungry as first-timers.

So, given everything else is equal, I would chose the one with the non-serial founders.

But usually not everything will be equal, so:

1. evaluate the idea/product for its TAM and commercial/exit potential

2. what is the run rate of the company: raised funds / burn rate per month

3. serial founders or first-timers?

4. are you passionate about this space?

5. would you like working with these people?

6. are you happy with the compensation (i.e. equity/salary split)?

If it's a B2B or B2D startup, it might benefit from YC, as YC alumni startups might be early customers. The VCs may also ask their portfolio companies to evaluate your product, but IMO it's much more effective in YC case.

VCs are a weak signal. I've applied to many of the YC backed ones in my region. All of them have completely different cultures. YC is adamant on being product first and not running out of money, but it doesn't really change much.

I would look at it like university. It's a good early filter and it matters somewhat at mature stages. But there are terrible people from Harvard too, and there are great people who have never went to university.

Pick the one where you admire and like the founders more, and/or where you’ve used and believe in the product most. If you’re not sure, spend more time with the founders before choosing.

It is a good question to ask, but I'm hoping this is just a small detail in your decision, not a major factor. All VCs will bring money. All VCs will push the leadership to make high-risk/high-return decisions in hopes of driving large exits. If you are likewise wanting a high-risk gig for a large exit, you are on the right path. But if you are looking for more of a stable long-term gig with people and a product you like.... VC-driven startups might not be the right answer.

wouldn't count on the VCs for much signal at all

for the most part, Lightspeed invests good bit later than the others you've mentioned -- they're cutting larger checks in more mature companies

probability of an outright zero is likely lower with the Lightspeed-backed company (but honestly not by that much)

wouldn't use this as the primary criterion for offer acceptance