> to justify those costs, the technology must be able to solve complex problems, which it isn't designed to do
Planning and reasoning are the two greatest areas of research in AI right now, with an OOM more researchers devoted to it than there were to the first generation of generative AI architectures
> In our experience, even basic summarization tasks often yield illegible and nonsensical results
Summarization with current generation models is excellent. I can get a summarization of a several-hour-long-call with better recall than I could have had myself, for less than $2 in inference costs.
> even if costs decline, they would have to do so dramatically to make automating tasks with AI affordable
We’ve seen a literal 10x decrease in cost from gpt-4-32k to gpt-4o in a single year of AI development (3:1 cost blend). And that ignores that sonnet-3.5 is 50x cheaper than gpt-4-32k while getting better scores on pretty much all benchmarks?
> the human brain is 10,000x more effective per unit of power in performing cognitive tasks vs. generative AI
Patently false, we’re not untethered brains floating around and require shelter, food, and a ton of other energy intensive requirements to live, and an AI system can perform a task that it is designed to do easily 10-20x faster than a human could.
If anything this makes me more bullish about AI systems having a positive ROI; the criticisms they have are based on extraordinarily (if not nefariously) dumb assumptions.
I don’t see strong reasons to think AI will be different than tulips or South Sea investments in that regard.
Kind of a little surprised that they’re coming right out and saying it at this point; I didn’t think we were at that point in the hype cycle just yet.
Investment feels like a micromanager that won't let you do your work.
On a good side, we have finally have the first generation of AGI. Give it another ten years of improvements before we reach the next AI boom.
The current brain dead spitball method of shoehorning a chatbot interface on top of every single existing GUI application is not that.