Gwern’s final point - that ‘safe’ decisions might lead to a dead end with ultimately not enough creativity to get to AGI - feels contrary to the rest of his essay, so I feel like I must not understand his point.
Is purging / exodus of safety folks at OAI a ‘safe’ choice?
Yo @gwern, I’d love your thoughts on this. To my mind you can read OAI right now as either ‘acceleration for the win’ or ‘the innovative soul is gone’ or just ‘with liquidity some people want to do some different things / work at a different scale than OAI has got going rn’.
Contrary to your pitch I do think there’s a wide middle road where acceleration + billions + solving engineering challenges and collecting data = something valuable and interesting, esp with Sam running strategy.
Maybe Ilya and co are needed for round 5, but maybe not, maybe from here it is just mostly engineering, data and regulatory capture, and the question of creativity won’t be the defining one. I’m not saying this is likely but I don’t think it’s unlikely either. Actually I’d say it’s more likely than not.
Is purging / exodus of safety folks at OAI a ‘safe’ choice?
Yo @gwern, I’d love your thoughts on this. To my mind you can read OAI right now as either ‘acceleration for the win’ or ‘the innovative soul is gone’ or just ‘with liquidity some people want to do some different things / work at a different scale than OAI has got going rn’.
Contrary to your pitch I do think there’s a wide middle road where acceleration + billions + solving engineering challenges and collecting data = something valuable and interesting, esp with Sam running strategy.
Maybe Ilya and co are needed for round 5, but maybe not, maybe from here it is just mostly engineering, data and regulatory capture, and the question of creativity won’t be the defining one. I’m not saying this is likely but I don’t think it’s unlikely either. Actually I’d say it’s more likely than not.