This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge.

I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone).

I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we're posting that "Nvidia is the best shorting opportunity" without any of the knowledge of the market.

It looks like it's now going above $1000 and still going up.

Invest in things you know intimately folks. Also do the opposite of Reddit.

We all understand that this cannot and will not continue, right? One of two things happens:

1. The AI boom goes bust. Nvidia sales and/or margins crater. The stock craters with it.

2. The AI boom is the real deal. Companies aren’t stupid and won’t keep paying Nvidia these prices forever. Pretty soon hardware and software architectures are standardized enough that anyone who can get onboard with TSMC, Samsung, or Intel can churn out hardware optimized for the right few functions and sell for a faction of the price. Nvidia can still be an innovator but they won’t be able to sell “bread and butter” products at these prices. Sales and/or margins crater, as does the stock.

Bloomberg consensus data expectations YoY were:

  400% earnings growth and
  242% revenue growth.

The reality was

  461% earnings growth (629% GAAP)
  262% revenue growth.

78.9% gross margin.

Nvidia did it again.

This likely has more staying power than the crypto boom that fueled AMD's GPUs to enormous heights but when that crashed AMD ended up holding a lot of stock it couldn't shift and had an enormous right down of inventory. This AI bubble could be burst by a better cheaper product more dedicated to the task or a realisation that the issues with AI just can't be solved and a cooling off of the market hype.

What I fear is that Nvidia sees no value in its basic graphics cards any more or wants a lot more for them because they could sell that wafer space to businesses for more $. Its been getting crazy expensive for decent GPUs for a while for gaming and I can't see the next generation doing anything but being much higher due to the AI boom.

And they only have ~18 months of absurd profits from just a couple of customers (Meta and Microsoft/OpenAI) who are likely to realize they don't have the revenue to support 10 figure CapEx and will chose to develop their own chips, cutting NVIDIA out of the loop.

I foresee Nvidia stock playing out like a softer version of iomega that will still have consumer demand, but not as much temporary demand from the megacorps.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/day-market-history-iomegas-in...

Nvidia must be the fastest growing in revenue a company has ever been at their revenue, right?

If you adjust for inflation I imagine they'd have some competition from the robber barons, but it's hard to imagine.

What’s baffling about all this is both AMD and Intel have competing offerings and those offerings see next to no traction in spite of being much more attractive from the cost standpoint. I understand why they aren’t taking off on the training side: fragmentation is very counterproductive there. But why not deploy them in large quantities for inference at least? The effort of porting transformer based models is trivial for both vendors, and the performance is very competitive

I know it's never going to happen, but Nvidia really should spin off their consumer division - it's such a complete afterthought at this point. They are sitting on all of this amazing technology but just kind of stringing along the market at this point.

As they say, during a gold rush sell shovels. NVIDIA has an excellent shovel.

However I do notice that big players (GOOG, Meta, etc), seem more concerned with power cost right now than they do per-unit video cards.

Earnings estimates were bumped up recently by analysts due to buying (a lot of which looks like from FAANGs) and Nvidia beat those estimates, on top of the enormous run-up in revenues and profits it has had in the past year.

Guidance should be out soon and it might change things a bit but so far, the stock barely moves (compared to past earning reports) even with stock split + dividend increase. This looks rather bearish.

This could have been AMD, but they choose to sabotage themselves with half-baked APIs that don't even support all of their GPUs. Hell, ROCm didn't even support Windows until recently.

Frankly, it's shocking how bad they are at it.

The earnings call is wild. The pitch is essentially that AI is here right now and if you don't buy loads of Nvidia GPU immediately you'll be destroyed by other companies/countries that did buy it.

Bloomberg consensus data expectations YoY were:

  400% earnings growth and
  242% revenue growth.

The reality was

  461% earnings growth (629% GAAP)
  262% revenue growth.

Nvidia did it again.

I remember a recent HN thread where it was discussed if Nvidia has really an unique edge in AI because there are other approaches (NPUs, TPUs) to generating, and inferring models beyond the power on these GPUs. I think for the general public it sounds like what Nvidia has is unique (like in gaming) where in AI other approaches arised and are arising.

2025? Second 2025 posting recently here. Is HN has Time Traveller these days and someone have successfully hacked a Time Machine ?

Are we already in 2025 ? Same typo on their website. I guess the finance team didn’t use AI :)

2 hours into the post, nobody else noticed it is dated 2025, so what am I missing?

Here's the thing - compute/semiconductors will be the substrate for superintelligence.

If you believe AGI/ASI is imminent, the demand curve for compute will far exceed supply for the foreseeable future.

(Disclaimer: I am heavily biased, as a longtime investor in Nvidia + semiconductors, since 2014+).

A 10:1 split, this could run to a $1000 again in a couple years.

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"

Leader in the next generation!

What year is it? I'm surprised they haven't fixed the title.

I am immensely surprised by all the speculation in comments. NVIDIA simply hit a lucky streak. They rode out the crypto fad from last decade and happens to fall on the AI fad of this decade. If it continues, competitors will eventually catch up as regardless of how slow the behemoths are currently, if something transforms into a stable gold mine instead of random lucky streak, other competitors will start offering cheaper and competitive shovels. Just my 2c, you have the right to disagree :)